Community Discussions
Explore the latest discussions and community conversations related to this domain.
I bet he thinks it was an amazing date! : TikTokCringe
Main Post: I bet he thinks it was an amazing date! : TikTokCringe
Bet - Series Premiere Discussion
Main Post:
Bet
Premise: Yumeko (Miku Martineau) transfers into St. Dominic's Prep where she clashes with the Student Council with her gambling skills as she secretly plots revenge in the English live-action series adaptation of the Japanese manga "Kakegurui" from Simon Barry.
Subreddit(s): Platform: Metacritic: Genre(s) r/BetTVSeries Netflix [N/A] (score guide) Crime, Drama, Mystery, ThrillerLinks:
Top Comment: I finished it in one sitting. I haven’t seen the anime, but I had a general idea of what it’s about. Honestly, it’s not a bad show — as long as you go in with an open mind and don’t expect it to stick closely to the original material. It’s only loosely based on the anime and manga.
Bet (Netflix) Review/Discussion/Critique Thread
Main Post:
Please keep discussion/critique of Bet to this thread.
There are way too many repetitive "Bet is bad" or "Bet is actually good" posts right now.
Top Comment: I am someone who has only seen the animes and the Japanese live action before this and loved the anime but felt very meh on the way they did constant 4th wall breaking in the live action. For me the 'Inspired by Kakegurui' is doing a lot of heavy lifting. I don't like the way they changed some of the characters personalities but kept the names. I'd rather them have changed the names too. I wish they had stuck to more of the original storyline especially with the games they played. The overarching story for Yumeko doesn't really hit for me at all. It feels like it could've been in there but not been the main focus. I did enjoy the show. I thought it was fun and interesting in its own right but I wish they had changed all the names completely if they were going to stray so far from the source. It may be a bad analogy but Bet is inspired by Kakegurui' the same way 50 Shades is inspired by Twilight.
I worked on “BET”
Main Post: I worked on “BET”
Top Comment: Was there a particular reason they chose to deviate so far from the source material? Seems odd given how generally people liked One Piece but hated Death Note (a similar adaptation to this). Did no one look at the final product and think we weren’t going to rip it apart. Sorry if thats harsh but asking the US manga/ anime community to accept a standalone adaptation is a big ask considering how generally hateful and judgmental it can be. I’m sure we’re all curious who exactly this was tailored to besides fans of the source as well.
Live betting
Main Post:
What is everyone's view on live betting? Good option or just a money pit?
Top Comment: I've found with basketball, especially men's and women's tournament, if a heavy favorite falls behind early, like 6 points, it's almost easy money to pick the live line. But I've also been noticing as the teams are closer in talent, it is becoming a riskier proposition. Just curious on views of it. I treat it almost as a lark with small bets, but just dumb fun.
How to rate the accuracy of a bet
Main Post:
On paper, there are only 2 outcomes to a bet, either you win or you lose. But I believe, there are more degrees to just that, as a win by 10 points sounds much better than a win by 1, as it seems more secure and sustainable in the long run. Similarly, if I bet over for 20 points and he scores 19, even though I lost, my analysis does not sound that bad, compared to if he only scored 10.
So to calculate the prediction accuracy, what I do (and I think many others do) is calculate the difference between the result and the lowest possible winning outcome, then divide it by the lowest possible winning outcome. So for example, let's say I bet a player A to score 9.5+ points and he ends up scoring 15, the prediction accuracy would be (15-10)/10 = 0.5. If he score 10 then it would be (10-10)/10 = 0. If he only scored 5 then it would be (5-10)/10 = -0.5. Any prediction accuracy values >= 0 means the bet is successful and <0 means unsuccessful. To avoid screw, the largest value it can get is 1 and the smallest value is -1. For example, if the bet is O1.5 3PM and he had 0 3PM, the prediction accuracy will be -1, and if he had 8 3 PM, then it will be 1.
Let me know other ways to calculate the accuracy of a prediction. Check out my tracking sheet and let me know if there is any recommendations on that as well if you guys have time: https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/p/props-analysis-spreadsheet.html
Appreciate all feedback, as always thanks all, I have learned a lot in this subreddit
Top Comment: The approach you describe kind of misses the point of what you're trying to do to make money by gambling on sports. Measuring how close/far off you were from the number you picked doesn't help you that much because you are not rewarded or punished for getting the bet more or less correct. In other words, if you bet a player to score 20 points, you are returned the same whether he scores 21 or 40. To better highlight the flaw with your approach, imagine a scenario where you bet a player to score O1.5 3PM and he comes into the game and then immediately leaves with an injury. This is going to show up as a -1 in your metric but actually its not really that bad because this is going to happen less than 5% or something of the time. What you should really care about is not how close or far you are from the number, but how frequently outcomes that you predict to have a certain probability of occurring actually occur. If you're really attempting to be a successful gambler, you need to be assigning probabilities to the bets you place. You're not just saying, "I think this player will hit O1.5 3PM" you're saying "I think this player has a 56% chance to hit O1.5 3P". Once you start doing this you can track these probabilities and the outcomes and then assess your method. For example, find all of the events that you assessed to have a 50-55% chance of occurring... what % of the time did those events occur? If, within a certain margin of error, they occurred 50-55% of the time then your prediction system works. If not, then you're over or underpredicting and you can assess that. Obviously the hard part of this is that you need massive sample sizes and you can't just lump all of your bets. You shouldn't be lumping NHL Moneylines in with NBA player props. You should be assessing your prediction strength of say "NBA Player Assists" by itself. Most people who do modeling would do this by predicting the entire market (so in this example every player assists bet) over a long period, and then testing the accuracy of their predictions, without actually placing those bets. If you do this for a long enough period, you can assess your accuracy in a certain market. Unfortunately, if you go and do this for a long period, you're probably going to find that the book lines are already a better predictor of the outcomes than anything you can come up with. This has been shown repeatedly but the most famous example is Pinnacle's analysis of their own soccer lines where the use basically the approach I describe above and showed that their own market was already an accurate predictor of probabilities. https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/node/23334 I'm not saying its impossible to be a successful bottom up bettor, but it is incredibly difficult in today's sports betting markets and 95% of people (probably more) are much better off trying to generate a profit via a top-down approach by either steamchasing/shopping for line misprices or using promotions to generate an edge.